January, 2009
Much has been written and stated about the health and status of the current Fredericksburg real estate market. The guessing game continues, as to whether or not we are at the bottom of the market. And, if not, how much more will it fall. Or, when will prices increase.
Usually, when a potential buyer approaches me, instead of asking, “Are we at the bottom of the market?” The question is, “Is this a good time to buy?” My response generally outlines some key information including, where the market is today, where we have come from, some history of the real estate market rise and fall, and information on current lending situations.
Here is a brief summary of my opinion on these matters.
- The Current Market – The market today is one in which many buyers have returned to the marketplace. Homes are moving consistently, and in a reasonable time frame… particularly those homes that are price in the bottom 20% when compared with comparable homes. For a buyer, this means that a little quicker decision has to be made when they find a great property at a good value. Many buyers in the last few months have acted too slowly, and have watched another buyer snatch away the home they wanted.
- Where We Came From – Everyone knows that prices spiked in an insane fashion in 2004 and 2005, reaching their peak in late 2005 and early 2006. What some people don’t know is exactly what has occurred since then. In our market place, as a general rule, prices fell somewhere around 10% in early to mid 2007. From then til the end of 2008, prices fell generally another 30%! So, it is not unusual at all to find homes selling for 40% to 50% less than they did in 2005 and 2006.
- A Little History – Few buyers and sellers have truly researched history of the rise and fall of real estate. Information I have gleaned from a large amount of research shows a few interesting points. There was a spike in pricing preceding The Great Depression. That was followed by about 30 years of a down market before there was a real, true recovery of pricing. There were also spikes in the early 80′s and 90′s. Those spikes were followed by big declines in prices, and an eight to ten year recovery period before prices recovered and increased beyond the trend line. What this means for buyers is that we have seen a big decline in prices, creating good buying opportunities. But, do not buy thinking you are going to reap huge inflation dividends in the next year or two. Real estate will recover, and will prove to be a good investment, but is not currently a quick hitting investment vehicle.
- Current Lending Situation – I have a strong working knowledge of lending practices, but I am not a mortgage professional. I can certainly refer my clients to some incredible professionals in the mortgage business. So, I will simply say here, that for people with good credit, opportunities to buy are available, and that current interest rates are fantastic. Give me a call or email me for a referral to some mortgage professionals, if you need more information.
Category : Blog
I have been an owner of the iPhone for quite some time, and have enjoyed the iPod feature of the phone, to a degree. I won’t drive with the earbuds in, so have felt somewhat limited with the music capability while on the go.
Recently, my daughter asked me to get a device that would allow us to play our iPods through the car radio. So, I purchased a $49.00 device made by Griffin from Wal-mart. This device absolutely stinks. So, I had resigned myself to the perceived fact that the FM transmitters for iPod devices just didn’t work that well.
However, that all changed yesterday. I was speaking with a Radio Shack employee in Virginia Center Commons Mall. We were discussing these devices, and he encouraged me to try the one he owns. He “Guaranteed” that I would be satisfied with it. So, I swallowed hard, and paid the $89.00 price tag.
And, what a GREAT recommendation it was. This thing works exactly as advertised!! The device he recommended was the Belkin TuneBase FM with ClearScan. It works with virtually every iPod made, holds the device in place while you drive, quickly scans for the best channel to use, and transmits a crystal clear sound to the radio. I highly recommend it. Check it out here.
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Category : Blog
Early in the year in 2008, I made the statement several times, that if you want to sell your home, and cannot wait a long time, then you need to SELL NOW! I indicated that prices would continue to fall through 2008. I met with a TON of skepticism about my comments. However, time has proven that my comments, if not prophetic, were highly accurate. Prices fell on an average of 25% to 30% throughout 2008.
I have made statements recently to sellers, that again are being met with skepticism. What are those statements? That there will be no noticeable increase in sales prices in 2009. Several potential sellers have told me that they plan to wait until the spring and summer months of 2009, so they, “Can get their price.”
Well, my opinion is this. If they cannot get their price today, they won’t get in any season in 2009. Certainly, there is something to be said for selling during certain seasons. But, the market has begun to become favorable to buyers over recent months, and the buyers are buying homes. It is my opinion that buyers will not react favorably to any rise in prices in the near future.
Secondly, and no one yet know what will happen with this. But, there are potentially more than 2 million more homes that could go into foreclosure in 2009. If that happens, who knows how it will affect our market.
So, the long and short of this message is this. If you want/need to sell your home in the next year or two, you should go ahead and put it on the market now, while we know the buyers are out there. If you are buying, the conditions are pretty favorable for doing so. Investors are in the market, and interest rates are pretty doggone good.
Here is hoping you all have a prosperous new year!
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Category : Blog